Uranium Market - Forecast(2024 - 2030)

Uranium market size is forecast to reach US$12.7 billion by 2030, after growing at a CAGR of 4.3% during 2024-2030. The most numerous actinides on earth are naturally occurring uranium and thorium, as well as synthetically generated plutonium. Globally, nuclear power generation, which accounts for around one-tenth of the world's electricity, is the primary driver of uranium demand which has fueled the market in recent years. Demand for uranium has exponentially increased as countries seek to reach net zero. Additionally, due to the growing awareness regarding carbon emissions, nuclear power as a clean energy source is in demand.  Moreover, the rising demand for uranium in the space and healthcare industry is estimated to boost the growth of the market.

The report " Uranium Market Report – Forecast (2024-2030)" by IndustryARC covers an in-depth analysis of the following segments of the uranium market.

By Isotope: Uranium-238, Uranium-234, and Uranium-235

By Application: Medical & Pharmaceutical, Food & Beverage, Industrial (Automotive, Aerospace, and Metallurgy), Nuclear Energy, and Others

By Geography: North America (USA, Canada, and Mexico), Europe (UK, Germany, Italy, France, Spain, Netherlands, Russia, Belgium, and Rest of Europe), Asia Pacific (China, Japan, India, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand, Taiwan, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Rest of Asia Pacific), South America (Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, Chile, and Rest of South America), and RoW (Middle East and Africa) 

• The North America region dominated the Uranium market with the rising domestic uranium production. 

• The growing need for alternative clean energy drives the demand for nuclear energy.

• The use of uranium to power spacecrafts acts as an opportunity for the uranium market.

Uranium-235 held the largest share with 23% in the uranium market and is expected to continue its dominance over the period 2024-2030. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, nuclear power plants primarily use U-235 for nuclear fission because its atoms are easily split apart. However, natural uranium typically contains only 0.72% of U-235 and, most reactors need a higher concentration of this isotope in their fuel. Therefore, the U-235 concentration is artificially increased through a process called enrichment. Uranium is considered low-enriched if its isotopic proportion of U-235 remains below 20%. Most commercial reactors use low-enriched uranium (LEU) below 5% as fuel, which is also often referred to as reactor-grade uranium

Nuclear energy held the largest share with 47% in the uranium market and is expected to continue its dominance over the period 2024-2030. Nuclear materials are an excellent source for the heat generation process. Uranium is primarily utilized as a fuel in the nuclear power reactors to generate electricity. Nuclear materials are employed in the generation of electricity because they have several advantages such as low-cost energy, zero-carbon emissions, better energy density, and a stable power source; as a result, the volume of nuclear power generation is increasing. Furthermore, new nuclear power plants are being built to increase nuclear power producing capacity. According to the World Nuclear Association, nuclear energy now provides 10% of the world's electricity from about 440 power reactors, as of November 2023. In November 2023, the Swedish government presented a new roadmap outlining increased production equivalent to 2 nuclear reactors by 2035. The government estimated that the country will need an equivalent of 10 new conventional nuclear reactors by 2045 to achieve its energy transition goals. Due to these factors, the demand for uranium is anticipated to increase and result in the growth of the market in the future period.

North America region dominated the uranium market with a share of 55% in 2023. The market in the region is witnessing expansions with the rising production of uranium in emerging economies such as USA, Canada, and Mexico. According to the World Nuclear Association, Canada produced 15% of global supply of uranium from mines. Saskatchewan's nearly $1 billion-a-year uranium industry made Canada the world's second-largest producer in 2022, according to World Nuclear Association (WNA) data. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency, nuclear energy is the second largest source of non-emitting electricity in Canada, with 19 commercial nuclear power reactors located in Ontario and New Brunswick that produce approximately 15% of Canada's electricity supply. In the U.S., investments and tax incentives included in the Inflation Reduction Act will reinforce the nation’s commitment to maximize the use of its existing nuclear power plants and encourage deployment of new nuclear technology. 

Nuclear-powered systems are lighter in mass than solar cells with similar power when compared to other power-backed systems. It allows spacecraft to be smaller and easier to orient and direct in space. When space probes function in areas far from the sun, the only available alternative for producing heat and electricity is the use of radio-isotopes such as uranium. Increasing investments in the space sector has accelerated the demand for uranium over the forecast period. The global space economy grew 8% to $546 billion in 2022 and is projected to climb another 41% over the next five years, according to a report from the Space Foundation. The US dominated civil and defense spending in space, comprising nearly 60% of total spending. China followed in second place, accounting for 14%. Thus, due to increased investment in the space industry across the world is acting as a driver for the growth of the uranium market.

Radioisotopes such as uranium is widely employed in medicine and research. Radio-diagnosis is a technique for detecting disease that involves injecting radio-elements into the human body and watching their trajectories. Ionizing radiation is used in radiotherapy to kill cancer cells, while nuclear medicine relies on radioactive medications that target specific organs. Increasing investments in the medical sector for research & development has uplifted the market growth. According to the World Nuclear Association, over 40 million nuclear medicine procedures are performed each year, and demand for radioisotopes is increasing at up to 5% annually. In the USA there are over 20 million nuclear medicine procedures per year, and in Europe about 10 million, with 2 million of these being therapeutic. In Australia there are about 560,000 per year, 470,000 of these using reactor isotopes. The use of radiopharmaceuticals in diagnosis is growing at over 10% per year. Thus, the medical and healthcare sector drives the demand for uranium during the forecast period.

The Fukushima disaster led to uranium prices dropping for a few years. But with the Paris Accords and the race to reach net zero, the demand for uranium began to pick up. But geopolitical tensions have caused the prices to soar. According to the Uranium Market Outlook by UxC, geopolitical risk has weighed heavily on the uranium market, beginning with civil unrest in Kazakhstan in January 2022, followed by Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The spot uranium price reacted strongly to Russia's military action, increasing from $43 a pound in late February 2022 to a peak of $63.75 a pound in April 2022. The spot price has since resided in the mid- to high-$40s range. In December 2023, spot uranium prices soared 56% to $US86 a pound due to countries pledging to triple nuclear capacity at COP28. In January 2024, uranium prices jumped to a sixteen-year high to just over $103 per pound after one of the world’s largest producers, Kazatomprom said it is unlikely to deliver its 2024 production guidance as it was operating 20% below capacity. Thus, fluctuating price of uranium may create challenges in the overall market expansion.